For months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pushed the idea of a soft landing, cooling inflation without triggering a recession.
Dr. William McAndrew of Gannon is less optimistic.
"I would not bet money that a soft landing is going to happen," he said. "I am more pessimistic."
He expects the economy to tighten, leading to job cuts, smaller growth in investments and some companies folding entirely.
"I think that we are likely to see some short-term pain," he said. "If we do, I think the Fed will see it as mission accomplished, and maybe ease back a little bit. It is not a good thing in the short term, especially for the people most affected by it, but it could mean that we are toward the end of the rate hike cycle."
Ending that cycle won't be easy.
For years, financing was easy to come by, with rates in the low single digits.
Now, smaller businesses that relied on that affordable capital -- and the jobs that money supported -- might disappear.
"You are probably going to see small and medium-sized businesses struggle to stay afloat or maintain the financing that they have," McAndrew said.
That's not all.
Ongoing strikes do further economic damage and when they end, products -- like cars -- will become more expensive.
In a week, student loan debt repayments begin too, meaning consumers now have less available money and another major expense.
The result: less spending just ahead of the holidays. 
"It wouldn't surprise me if this is the year that we see a smaller Christmas," McAndrew said. "With inflation the way it has been, with mortgage prices rising, which also affects rental cost for people who are renting, student loans starting to be repaid in October, there are lots of reasons to believe people's budgets are going to be smaller this year."