Stocks waver as Wall Street digests tariff uncertainty

By David Goldman, John Towfighi and Alicia Wallace, CNN
New York (CNN) — Stocks edged higher on Thursday as Wall Street assessed the outlook for President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which remains in limbo as federal courts deliberate its legality.
The Dow closed higher by 117 points, or 0.28%, after fluctuating throughout the day. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.39%.
Stocks initially jumped higher after a federal court ruled late Wednesday that Trump overstepped his authority to impose sweeping tariffs, throwing into chaos the administration’s core trade policy that has threatened to raise prices for businesses and slow the economy.
Investors cheered, but not overwhelmingly — and a morning rally on Thursday lost some steam as investors assessed the potential outcome for Trump’s tariffs. The White House immediately appealed, and a federal appeals court on Thursday paused the ruling from the Court of International Trade on Wednesday that had blocked most of Trump’s tariffs.
Gains were muted as the fate of the tariffs remains unclear. A number of Wall Street analysts also suggested the White House could simply reclassify some of its sweeping tariffs under a different law that was not challenged in the court ruling.
“The Trump administration has other authorities it can use to impose tariffs similar to those the court struck down,” noted Alec Phillips, managing director at Goldman Sachs, in a note to investors.
Stocks had also received a boost from Nvidia’s strong earnings Wednesday, but the rally largely faded amid trade war uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up as much as 0.9% and 1.5% respectively at the opening bell before wavering midday.
“There is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs,” said John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note.
Wall Street had largely moved beyond the trade war after a number of rollbacks, pauses and deals had taken much of the sting out of the tariffs that at one point early last month sent the S&P 500 into bear market territory before rallying.
“This is a positive, but it doesn’t have the same oomph as it may have in early April when the market was down,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, after the court on Wednesday initially blocked Trump’s tariff agenda. “Investors have already been pricing in less concern about tariffs. A month ago, we might have seen a 1,000-point rally on this.”
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for global equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a Thursday note he expects US stocks to rise over the next 12 months, “but near-term gains this year are likely to be more limited.”
“We expect further market volatility ahead as headlines on both trade and fiscal policy emerge in the weeks and months ahead,” Hoffmann-Burchardi said.
Many stocks that had been particularly hit hard by tariffs bounced back in premarket trading before wavering during the day. Apple, Target, Nike and Crocs all rose in early hours before sliding into the red during regular trading hours.
“Higher trade policy uncertainty also tends to coincide with increased implied volatility, so investors should expect elevated turbulence until there is greater clarity on trade,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, in a Thursday note.
Some traditional safe haven assets, including US Treasury bonds and gold, rallied on Thursday as investors embraced a risk-off attitude. The dollar and US crude oil fell.
And some Wall Street analysts cautioned that investors shouldn’t get too excited about the challenges to Trump’s agenda: The economic pain caused by tariffs remains, and Trump will almost certainly fight to maintain his signature policy.
“In our view, the administration will center its attention on its appeal of the CIT ruling and will prepare the groundwork for a more surgical increase in tariffs beginning this summer following Section 232 trade investigations into strategic industries like pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, lumber, copper and semiconductors,” said Kurt Reiman, head of fixed income for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a Thursday note.
“While Wednesday’s ruling may lift markets and the spirits of businesses and consumers concerned about the negative effects of tariffs, the uncertainty that’s starting to weigh on the economy isn’t going away,” said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The uncertainty is only over if Trump does his own surprise and accepts the decision and does not come in with tariffs under these other statutes, and I’m not giving that much credence.”
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