By Ethan Cohen, Jeff Zeleny, CNN

(CNN) — Iowa Democrats secured a consequential victory in a special election on Tuesday, CNN projects, breaking the Republican supermajority in the state Senate by flipping a seat in a district President Donald Trump carried last year.

Democrat Catelin Drey defeated her Republican opponent, Christopher Prosch, in a special election in the Sioux City area to fill the seat of a GOP lawmaker who died of cancer in June.

Speaking to CNN on Wednesday, Drey credited her victory to campaigning on concerns about affordability, echoing a message credited by Zohran Mamdani in his surprise victory in New York City’s mayoral primary and other Democrats looking to make inroads against Trump and Republicans.

Lack of affordability “affects us whether we are Black, White or brown,” Drey said on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper.”

“Being able to afford a good life in Iowa has gotten harder,” she said. “So reaching voters with that message was priority No. 1.”

Trump won the 1st Senate district by 11 percentage points in November, so Drey’s margin of victory, currently about 10 points, represents a significant over-performance for Democrats in a state once seen as a top battleground, but which has trended Republican for the last decade.

“For the fourth special election in a row, Iowa voted for change,” Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said in a statement. “Our state is ready for a new direction and Iowa Democrats will keep putting forward candidates who can deliver better representation for Iowans.”

While Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024 after winning it by eight in 2020, Democrats have overperformed in all four of the state’s special legislative elections this year.

In January they flipped a state senate seat in a district Trump had won by more than 20 points.

With Drey’s victory, Democrats will now hold 17 districts in the Iowa Senate compared to 33 seats held by Republicans, which is enough to break a two-thirds supermajority the GOP has wielded since 2022.

The special election outcome means Democrats could now block Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ nominations to state agencies, boards and commissions in the final year of her term.

As is typical in special legislative elections, Tuesday’s vote was a low-turnout affair. Only about 7,600 voters participated compared to nearly 22,000 who voted in the district in November’s presidential election.

That low turnout can make special elections unpredictable, but Democratic performance in these special elections could bode well for them in 2026 when the midterm electorate is likely to include a smaller group of more motivated voters than that of a presidential year.

Iowa Republican leaders downplayed the Democratic victory, with state GOP chairman Jeff Kaufmann saying: “National Democrats were so desperate for a win that they activated 30,000 volunteers and a flood of national money to win a state Senate special election by a few hundred votes.”

But Republican groups also spent considerable money on the seat in a special election that Democrats are trying to use to gain momentum for the 2026 campaign.

In the past decade, Democrats have lost all but one statewide office and all federal seats, but party leaders point to the special election results this year as a sign change is looming in Iowa.

This story has been updated with additional information.

The-CNN-Wire
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